How much money will autonomous cars ultimately save? 自主驾驶汽车最终能节约多少钱?

After I started focusing on the research on Intelligent Vehicle, or, autonomous cars you might call it, one question that my parents and friends often ask me is: “What’s the use of intelligent vehicle (autonomous cars)?”. Normally, I’d like to reply: “saving the space”, “decreasing the accidents”, “saving energy consumption” or “alleviating the air pollution”.

当我开始进行智能汽车,或者说自主驾驶汽车的研究时,我的父母和朋友经常会问我:“智能汽车(自主驾驶汽车)的用途是什么?” 通常来讲,我会回答:“节约空间”、“减少交通事故”、“节约能源消耗”,或者“减缓空气污染”等等。

Abstract concepts are always abstract to understand, while numbers tell a more splendid story. The following pictures demonstrate the idea about “how much money will autonomous cars ultimately save?”, which I found in Pinterest.

抽象的概念总是难以理解,而数据是最有说服力的。下面的图像来自于Pinterest,以数字的方式阐述了“自主驾驶汽车最终能节约多少钱?”这个问题的答案。

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4 phases consist of the “future”. The future of autonomous cars: fully autonomous cars can be expected by the end of this decade. Among those that the phase 4 is called “Autopia”, which means “All cars on the road are fully autonomous. No human intervention is needed when driving”.

自主驾驶技术的未来划分为4个阶段。十年内将会有完全自主的无人驾驶汽车出现,而最后的第4个阶段称为“Autopia”,在该阶段,“所有上路车辆均具备完全自主驾驶功能,驾驶过程中完全不需要人工干预”。

The savings behind autonomous cars. These numbers are predicted by Morgan Stanley’s report, and the first part of the numbers are related to “Fuel Savings”. By integrating the cruise control technology into all the cars on road, $92.55 billion is expected to be saved per year.

这些数据来自摩根斯坦利的报告,其中第一部分的数据主要有关“节约的燃油”。如果自适应巡航结束被应用到所有上路车辆中,每年将节约925.5亿美元的燃油开销。

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The biggest saving definitely comes from “Accident Savings”. 90% of these accidents were caused by human errors, resulting in 32885 deaths by the year of 2009. By eliminating all the accidents caused by human errors theoretically, the current $336 billion lost per year will drop to only 10%, saving nearly $330 billion per year.

避免车祸带来的损失必然是最大的一个好处。数据表明,90%的车辆事故因人为失误导致,并致每年32885人丧命(2009年数据),每年造成3360亿美元的损失。理论上如果能避免约90%的交通事故,将会减少约3300亿美元的损失。

Meanwhile traffic jams or congestion cause a lot of productivity losses. The autonomous driving technology, especially the management of intelligent transportation system will save $80.94 billion productivity losses, and $6.45 billion fuel per year.

与此同时,道路交通拥堵也导致了一系列的生产效率低下和损失。自动驾驶技术,尤其是智能交通系统管理技术,每年将减少约809.4亿美元的生产损失,并节约交通堵塞带来的约64.5亿美元燃油浪费。

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When occupants are freed from driving, a tremendous productivity gain is expected when people are able to work whilst commuting. $247.6 billion gains per year is expected.

而自动驾驶技术解放了人们的双手的同时,也允许人们在交通路途中进行工作。据估计,每年因此增加的产值约为2476亿美元。

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In total, $760 billion per year is saved (gained) when US transportation enters the phase 4 “Autopia”. These numbers could be even larger when this autonomous driving technology is applied over the world. Anyway, “Only time will tell”.

总体而言,如果全美国的上路车辆均进入的第4阶段“Autopia”,每年将减少(产出)约7460亿美元的损失(产值)。如果该技术能在全球得到进一步应用,这个数字会更大。一言概之,“一切留待时间”。

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All the sources are from “Nikola’s Revenge: TSLA’s New Path of Disruption, Tesla Motors Inc., Morgan Stanley, Feb.25 2014.”

所有数据和图片来自“Nikola’s Revenge: TSLA’s New Path of Disruption, Tesla Motors Inc., Morgan Stanley, Feb.25 2014.”

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关于dixiaocui

无人驾驶汽车研究员 半吊子摇滚混子乐手 Researcher on Intelligent Vehicle Guitarist/Singer/Rocker
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